Generated outcomes in risky choice reveal biased sampling and sequential dependencies.
Recent decision-making models have explained behaviour using mental sampling mechanisms, but there is still little agreement on the specific sampling process, such as whether sampling rates match true probabilities. Here, we seek to trace the sampling process using generation tasks: in two experimen...
| Publicado en: | Communications Psychology Vol. 4; no. 1; pp. 1 - 13 |
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| Autores principales: | , , , , , |
| Formato: | equations & formulas research tables/charts Journal Article |
| Publicado: |
Springer Nature
5/7/2026
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ccm&AN=195315892&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ccm uiTerm: 195315892 longDbName: CINAHL Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: dissinfo: jinfo: jid: 27319121 N51Q jtl: Communications Psychology issn: 27319121 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: 5/7/2026 vid: 4 iid: 1 pid: 237 pub: Springer Nature place: New York, New York artinfo: ui: 195315892 195315892 195315892 10.1038/s44271-026-00467-y 195315892 ppf: 1 ppct: 12 formats: tig: atl: Generated outcomes in risky choice reveal biased sampling and sequential dependencies. aug: au: Spicer, Jake Li, Yun-Xiao Castillo, Lucas Falbén, Johanna K. Qian, C. Stella Sanborn, Adam N. affil: https://ror.org/01a77tt86 Department of Psychology, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK sug: subj: Decision Making Risk Taking Behavior Cognition Models, Psychological Task Performance and Analysis Human Male Female Adult Middle Age Aged Probability Judgment Problem Solving Mental Processes Psychological Theory Attention Memory Learning Reproducibility of Results Linear Regression Logistic Regression Paired T-Tests Data Analysis Software Descriptive Statistics Funding Source Adult: 19-44 years Middle Aged: 45-64 years Aged: 65+ years Male Female ab: Recent decision-making models have explained behaviour using mental sampling mechanisms, but there is still little agreement on the specific sampling process, such as whether sampling rates match true probabilities. Here, we seek to trace the sampling process using generation tasks: in two experiments using general online samples (Ns = 52, 51), participants repeatedly produced potential outcomes from pairs of monetary gambles before choosing between them. Results found over-generation of rarer outcomes and under-generation of common outcomes overall, but not in initial responses, as well as avoidance of direct repetitions. Participants also tended to select options with higher average utility across their responses, implying generations guided choice. These findings suggest systematic biases in the information people may consider before a choice, and the influence that this can have on subsequent decisions, carrying implications for mental sampling models of this behaviour. We thus suggest explicit generation is a valuable method to access underlying choice processes, offering new assessments of existing theories of decision making. This study examined what information people may consider before a choice by asking them to repeatedly generate its possible outcomes. Participants overgenerated rare events and avoided direct repetitions, suggesting biases in what comes to mind. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: equations & formulas research tables/charts Journal Article ougenre: Article language: English refInfo: holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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