Electoral context matters: why undecided voters in elections and referendums are different.

During general election and referendum campaigns, many voters will know how they are going to vote far in advance, while a smaller group of undecided voters will make up their minds closer to polling day. These undecided voters emerge as important actors in democratic politics. Their choices can be...

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Publicado en:Parliamentary Affairs Vol. 79; no. 3; pp. 487 - 511
Autores principales: Cameron, Sarah, McAllister, Ian
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: Oxford University Press / USA Jul2026
Materias:
Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
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        atl: Electoral context matters: why undecided voters in elections and referendums are different.
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          Cameron, Sarah
          McAllister, Ian
        affil:
          School of Government and International Relations, Griffith University, Nathan QLD 4111, Australia
          School of Politics and International Relations, The Australian National University, 146 Ellery Crescent, Acton ACT 2601, Australia
      su:
        Elections
        Referendum
        Political campaigns
        Voting research
        Power (Social sciences)
        Voters
        Third parties (Politics)
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        subj:
          Elections
          Referendum
          Political campaigns
          Voting research
          Power (Social sciences)
          Voters
          Third parties (Politics)
      keyword:
        Australian politics
        copyrightHolder:Hansard Society
        copyrightYear:2026
        elections
        inLanguage:en
        publisher:Oxford University Press
        referendums
        sameAs:https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pa/gsaf043
        undecided voters
        voter behaviour
        Australian politics
        copyrightHolder:Hansard Society
        copyrightYear:2026
        elections
        inLanguage:en
        publisher:Oxford University Press
        referendums
        sameAs:https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pa/gsaf043
        undecided voters
        voter behaviour
      ab: During general election and referendum campaigns, many voters will know how they are going to vote far in advance, while a smaller group of undecided voters will make up their minds closer to polling day. These undecided voters emerge as important actors in democratic politics. Their choices can be swayed during the campaign, and their behaviour can explain how election and referendum outcomes differ from polling results. In this paper, we address two questions concerning undecided voters: (1) are there differences in the proportions of undecided voters in referendums and elections; and (2) how do the vote choices of these undecided voters vary between referendums and elections? To investigate these questions, we compare voting in two contiguous pairs of Australian referendums and general elections using national surveys. We find that the degree of indecision is similar across elections and referendums, although the behaviour of undecided voters varies across the different electoral contexts. In referendums, undecided voters are more likely to vote no, while in general elections, these voters are more likely to vote for minor parties.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
      doctype: Article
      src: R
    language: English
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