The impact of income tax changes on tax revenue.

This article shows that tax revenue responses to changes in tax rates crucially depend on how the changes affect the marginal tax rate relative to the average tax rate. Using a wide range of empirical frameworks and datasets, we find that tax multipliers are consistently large and tax revenues fall...

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Publicado en:Oxford Economic Papers Vol. 78; no. 3; pp. 712 - 740
Autores principales: McManus, Richard, Ozkan, F Gulcin, Trzeciakiewicz, Dawid
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: Oxford University Press / USA Jul2026
Materias:
Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
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        atl: The impact of income tax changes on tax revenue.
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          McManus, Richard
          Ozkan, F Gulcin
          Trzeciakiewicz, Dawid
        affil:
          School of Business, Law and Policing, Canterbury Christ Church University, North Holmes Road, Canterbury, Kent, CT1 1QU, United Kingdom
          King's Business School, King's College London, Bush House, Strand campus, 30 Aldwych, London, WC2B 4BG, United Kingdom
          Loughborough Business School, Loughborough University, Sir Richard Morris Building, Epinal Way, Loughborough, Leicestershire, LE11 3TU, United Kingdom
      su:
        Income tax
        Keynesian economics
        Empirical research
        Tax rates
        General equilibrium theory (Economics)
        Internal revenue
      sug:
        subj:
          Income tax
          Keynesian economics
          Empirical research
          Tax rates
          General equilibrium theory (Economics)
          Internal revenue
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        copyrightHolder:Oxford University Press
        copyrightYear:2026
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        J22
        Laffer curve
        marginal tax rates
        publisher:Oxford University Press
        sameAs:https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpag014
        tax multiplier
        tax revenues
        tax shocks
        copyrightHolder:Oxford University Press
        copyrightYear:2026
        E20
        E62
        H20
        H40
        inLanguage:en
        J22
        Laffer curve
        marginal tax rates
        publisher:Oxford University Press
        sameAs:https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpag014
        tax multiplier
        tax revenues
        tax shocks
      ab: This article shows that tax revenue responses to changes in tax rates crucially depend on how the changes affect the marginal tax rate relative to the average tax rate. Using a wide range of empirical frameworks and datasets, we find that tax multipliers are consistently large and tax revenues fall in response to tax rises, particularly when marginal taxes are raised. We validate our empirical findings within canonical real and new-Keynesian general equilibrium models by introducing the wedge between the average and marginal tax rates. Doing so reconciles a significant discrepancy between the theoretical and empirical size of tax multipliers.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
      doctype: Article
      src: R
    language: English
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