Prediction Markets: The Practical and Normative Possibilities for the Social Production of Knowledge.
The quest to foretell the future is omnipresent in human affairs. A potential solution to this epistemological conundrum has emerged through mass collaboration. Motored by the Internet, prediction markets allow a multitude of individuals to assume a stake in a security whose value is tied to a futur...
| Publicado en: | Episteme (Edinburgh University Press) Vol. 6; no. 1; pp. 91 - 107 |
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| Formato: | Artículo |
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Edinburgh University Press
2009
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=hlh&AN=36449902&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: hlh uiTerm: 36449902 longDbName: Humanities International Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 17423600 UP0 jtl: Episteme (Edinburgh University Press) issn: 17423600 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: 2009 vid: 6 iid: 1 pid: 2327 pub: Edinburgh University Press artinfo: ui: 36449902 10.3366/E1742360008000567 ppf: 91 ppct: 16 formats: fmt: @attributes: type: P size: 130KB tig: atl: Prediction Markets: The Practical and Normative Possibilities for the Social Production of Knowledge. aug: au: BRAGUES, GEORGE affil: Professor and Program Head in Business Studies, University of Guelph-Humber, Toronto su: Theory of knowledge Internet Prices Probability theory Psychology Mathematics sug: subj: Theory of knowledge Internet Prices Probability theory Psychology Mathematics ab: The quest to foretell the future is omnipresent in human affairs. A potential solution to this epistemological conundrum has emerged through mass collaboration. Motored by the Internet, prediction markets allow a multitude of individuals to assume a stake in a security whose value is tied to a future event. The resulting prices offer a continuously updated probability estimate of the event actually taking place. This paper gives a survey of prediction markets, their history, mechanics, uses, and theoretical foundation. We also review the literature surrounding their efficacy. Though there are shortcomings with prediction markets, as well as practical constraints, they hold out the prospect of improving the quality of organizational decisions and increasing the level of participation in the deliberative process. We also note that lessons can be drawn from these markets to guide the epistemological practices of disciplines and inquiries in which empirical methods are difficult to apply. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: Y custom: Copyright of Episteme (Edinburgh University Press) is the property of Edinburgh University Press and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. item: Episteme (Edinburgh University Press) holder: Edinburgh University Press dt: @attributes: year: 2009 holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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