| Summary: | In prior studies that use mathematical models to investigate the impact of speculative activity on commodity prices, it is assumed that speculators know both current and future nonspeculative excess demand functions. In this paper the analytical framework provided by Telser, Kemp, Farrell, and Schimmier has been extended in order to introduce uncertain future nonspeculative excess demand. A comparison of our results with those of Telser, Kemp, Farrell, and Schimmier reveals that, assuming linearity of the nonspeculators' excess demand curve, the results obtained in the prior studies continue to hold when the speculators are no longer assumed to know the nonspeculators' future excess demand function.
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