An Evaluation of Population Projections by Age.
A number of studies have evaluated the accuracy of projections of the size of the total population, but few have considered the accuracy of projections by age group. For many purposes, however, the relevant variable is the population of a particular age group, rather than the population as a whole....
| Publicado en: | Demography Vol. 40; no. 4; pp. 741 - 758 |
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| Autores principales: | , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
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Springer Science & Business Media B.V.
November 2003
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=510307305&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 510307305 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00703370 DEM jtl: Demography issn: 00703370 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: November 2003 vid: 40 iid: 4 pid: 237 pub: Springer Science & Business Media B.V. artinfo: ui: 510307305 10.1353/dem.2003.0041 ppf: 741 ppct: 17 formats: fmt: – @attributes: type: T – @attributes: type: P size: 1.2MB tig: atl: An Evaluation of Population Projections by Age. aug: au: Smith, Stanley K. Tayman, Jeff su: Cohort analysis Population Population forecasting Reliability (Personality trait) Social surveys United States sug: subj: United States Cohort analysis Population Population forecasting Reliability (Personality trait) Social surveys ab: A number of studies have evaluated the accuracy of projections of the size of the total population, but few have considered the accuracy of projections by age group. For many purposes, however, the relevant variable is the population of a particular age group, rather than the population as a whole. We investigated the precision and bias of a variety of age-group projections at the national and state levels in the United States and for counties in Florida. We also compared the accuracy of state and county projections that were derived from full-blown applications of the cohort-component method with the accuracy of projections that were derived from a simpler, less data-intensive version of the method. We found that age-group error patterns are different for national projections than for subnational projections; that errors are substantially larger for some age groups than for others; that differences in errors among age groups decline as the projection horizon becomes longer; and that differences in methodological complexity have no consistent impact on the precision and bias of age-group projections. Reprinted by permission of the publisher. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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