Integrating the Empirical Tests of the Natural Rate Hypothesis: A Meta-Regression Analysis.

A meta-analysis of thirty-four restriction tests from nine studies of the natural rate of unemployment hypothesis (NRU) finds the statistical trace of a false empirical hypothesis. A theme of bias and misspecification among those studies that tend to be more supportive of NRU emerges. When combined...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Publicado en:Kyklos Vol. 58; no. 4; pp. 611 - 635
Autor principal: Stanley, T. D.
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: Wiley-Blackwell 2005
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Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
Descripción
Sumario:A meta-analysis of thirty-four restriction tests from nine studies of the natural rate of unemployment hypothesis (NRU) finds the statistical trace of a false empirical hypothesis. A theme of bias and misspecification among those studies that tend to be more supportive of NRU emerges. When combined with a separate meta-analysis of NRU's falsifying hypothesis, unemployment ‘hysteresis’ (Stanley 2004a), the natural rate hypothesis may be regarded as empirically ‘falsified’ (Popper 1959). Monte Carlo simulations validate the meta-regression methods used here to integrate different restriction tests and to identify their limitations. Reprinted by permission of the publisher.