Should Oil Prices Receive So Much Attention? An Evaluation of the Predictive Power of Oil Prices for the U.S. Economy.
This paper evaluates the potential gains from using oil prices to forecast a variety of measures of inflation, economic activity, and monetary policy—related variables. With a few exceptions, oil prices do not have any predictive content for these variables. This finding is robust to the use of roll...
| Published in: | Economic Inquiry Vol. 46; no. 4; pp. 528 - 540 |
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| Main Authors: | , , |
| Format: | Article |
| Published: |
Wiley-Blackwell
October 2008
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | View this record in EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=510700812&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 510700812 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00952583 EIQ jtl: Economic Inquiry issn: 00952583 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: October 2008 vid: 46 iid: 4 pid: 480 pub: Wiley-Blackwell artinfo: ui: 510700812 10.1111/j.1465-7295.2007.00095.x ppf: 528 ppct: 12 formats: fmt: – @attributes: type: T – @attributes: type: P size: 3.3MB tig: atl: Should Oil Prices Receive So Much Attention? An Evaluation of the Predictive Power of Oil Prices for the U.S. Economy. aug: au: Bachmeier, Lance Li, Qi Liu, Dandan su: Mathematical models Petroleum product sales & prices United States economy Petroleum sales & prices sug: subj: Mathematical models Petroleum product sales & prices United States economy Petroleum sales & prices ab: This paper evaluates the potential gains from using oil prices to forecast a variety of measures of inflation, economic activity, and monetary policy—related variables. With a few exceptions, oil prices do not have any predictive content for these variables. This finding is robust to the use of rolling forecast windows, the use of industry-level data, changes in the forecast horizon, and allowing for nonlinearities. (JEL Q43, E37, C32) Reprinted by permission of the publisher. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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