Fiscal Readjustments in the United States: A Nonlinear Time-Series Analysis.
We analyze the fiscal adjustment process in the United States using a multivariate threshold vector error regression model. The shift from single-equation to multivariate setting adds value both in terms of our economic understanding of the fiscal adjustment process and the forecasting performance o...
| Publicado en: | Economic Inquiry Vol. 47; no. 1; pp. 34 - 55 |
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| Autores principales: | , , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
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Wiley-Blackwell
January 2009
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=510745191&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 510745191 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00952583 EIQ jtl: Economic Inquiry issn: 00952583 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: January 2009 vid: 47 iid: 1 pid: 480 pub: Wiley-Blackwell artinfo: ui: 510745191 10.1111/j.1465-7295.2008.00139.x ppf: 34 ppct: 21 formats: fmt: – @attributes: type: T – @attributes: type: P size: 1.4MB tig: atl: Fiscal Readjustments in the United States: A Nonlinear Time-Series Analysis. aug: au: Cipollini, Andrea Fattouh, Bassam Mouratidis, Kostas su: Time series analysis Nonlinear theories sug: subj: Time series analysis Nonlinear theories ab: We analyze the fiscal adjustment process in the United States using a multivariate threshold vector error regression model. The shift from single-equation to multivariate setting adds value both in terms of our economic understanding of the fiscal adjustment process and the forecasting performance of nonlinear models. We find evidence that fiscal authorities intervene to reduce real per capita deficit only when it reaches a certain threshold and that fiscal adjustment takes place primarily by cutting government expenditure. The results of out-of-sample density forecast and probability forecasts suggest that a shift from a univariate autoregressive model to a multivariate model improves forecast performance. (JEL C32, C53, E62) Reprinted by permission of the publisher. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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