Inference using qualitative and quantitative information with an application to monetary policy.
I propose a framework for drawing inferences about an unobserved variable using qualitative and quantitative information. Using this framework, I study the timing and persistence of monetary policy regimes and compute probabilistic measures of the qualitative indicator's reliability. These estimat...
| Published in: | Economic Inquiry Vol. 36; pp. 108 - 120 |
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| Format: | Article |
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Wiley-Blackwell
January 1998
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| Online Access: | View this record in EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=510873768&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 510873768 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00952583 EIQ jtl: Economic Inquiry issn: 00952583 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: January 1998 vid: 36 pid: 480 pub: Wiley-Blackwell artinfo: ui: 510873768 10.1111/j.1465-7295.1998.tb01699.x ppf: 108 ppct: 12 formats: fmt: @attributes: type: T tig: atl: Inference using qualitative and quantitative information with an application to monetary policy. aug: au: Jefferson, Philip N. su: Index numbers (Economics) Algorithms Monetary policy History United States sug: subj: United States Index numbers (Economics) Algorithms Monetary policy History ab: I propose a framework for drawing inferences about an unobserved variable using qualitative and quantitative information. Using this framework, I study the timing and persistence of monetary policy regimes and compute probabilistic measures of the qualitative indicator's reliability. These estimates suggest that (1) it is over one and one-half times more likely that monetary policy is not restrictive at any point in time, (2) Boschen and Mills's {1995} policy index is a reliable indicator of the stance of monetary policy, and (3) certain qualitative indicators of monetary policy improve interest rate forecasts that are based on linear forecasting models. Reprinted by permission of Western Economic International, 7400 Center Ave., Ste. 109, Huntington Beach, CA 92647-3039 USA, Ph. 1-714-898-3222, Fax 1-714-891-6715, E-mail [|Wu]info@weainternational.org[|WU] [|Wu]http://www.weainternational.org[|WU] pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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