Inference using qualitative and quantitative information with an application to monetary policy.

I propose a framework for drawing inferences about an unobserved variable using qualitative and quantitative information. Using this framework, I study the timing and persistence of monetary policy regimes and compute probabilistic measures of the qualitative indicator's reliability. These estimat...

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Published in:Economic Inquiry Vol. 36; pp. 108 - 120
Main Author: Jefferson, Philip N.
Format: Article
Published: Wiley-Blackwell January 1998
Subjects:
Online Access:View this record in EBSCOhost
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        10.1111/j.1465-7295.1998.tb01699.x
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        atl: Inference using qualitative and quantitative information with an application to monetary policy.
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        au: Jefferson, Philip N.
      su:
        Index numbers (Economics)
        Algorithms
        Monetary policy
        History
        United States
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          United States
          Index numbers (Economics)
          Algorithms
          Monetary policy
          History
      ab: I propose a framework for drawing inferences about an unobserved variable using qualitative and quantitative information. Using this framework, I study the timing and persistence of monetary policy regimes and compute probabilistic measures of the qualitative indicator's reliability. These estimates suggest that (1) it is over one and one-half times more likely that monetary policy is not restrictive at any point in time, (2) Boschen and Mills's {1995} policy index is a reliable indicator of the stance of monetary policy, and (3) certain qualitative indicators of monetary policy improve interest rate forecasts that are based on linear forecasting models. Reprinted by permission of Western Economic International, 7400 Center Ave., Ste. 109, Huntington Beach, CA 92647-3039 USA, Ph. 1-714-898-3222, Fax 1-714-891-6715, E-mail [|Wu]info@weainternational.org[|WU] [|Wu]http://www.weainternational.org[|WU]
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    language: English
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