Twin Sons of Different Mothers: The Long and the Short of the Twin Deficits Debate.
Interest in the twin deficits hypothesis fluctuates in tandem with the U.S. current account deficit. Surprisingly though, a statistically robust relationship between budget and trade deficits has been difficult to pin down. We argue that a big part of this difficulty is due to the failure to allow f...
| Publicado en: | Economic Inquiry Vol. 47; no. 4; pp. 625 - 639 |
|---|---|
| Autores principales: | , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
| Publicado: |
Wiley-Blackwell
October 2009
|
| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=510904250&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 510904250 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00952583 EIQ jtl: Economic Inquiry issn: 00952583 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: October 2009 vid: 47 iid: 4 pid: 480 pub: Wiley-Blackwell artinfo: ui: 510904250 10.1111/j.1465-7295.2008.00162.x ppf: 625 ppct: 14 formats: fmt: – @attributes: type: T – @attributes: type: P size: 8.6MB tig: atl: Twin Sons of Different Mothers: The Long and the Short of the Twin Deficits Debate. aug: au: Grier, Kevin Ye, Haichun su: Mathematical finance Budget deficits Balance of payments United States sug: subj: United States Mathematical finance Budget deficits Balance of payments ab: Interest in the twin deficits hypothesis fluctuates in tandem with the U.S. current account deficit. Surprisingly though, a statistically robust relationship between budget and trade deficits has been difficult to pin down. We argue that a big part of this difficulty is due to the failure to allow for structural breaks in the series when (either explicitly or implicitly) modeling their time series properties. We show that both series are break stationary (and conditionally heteroskedastic) and argue that while there is no common pattern in the long run, the short-run dynamics reveal a sizeable and fairly persistent positive relationship between budget deficit shocks and current account deficit shocks. (JEL F41, E6, H6) Reprinted by permission of the publisher. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
|---|