If this is a horse race, who's leading?
It is not always completely true to believe that the political candidate with the biggest poll numbers is in the lead in political elections. When the margin between the candidates is less than the sampling error margin, it should not be concluded that one candidate leads another. If, however, one...
| Publicado en: | American Demographics Vol. 22; no. 1; pp. 24 - 25 |
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| Formato: | Artículo |
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Crain Communications Inc. (MI)
January 2000
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=511146711&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 511146711 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 01634089 AMD jtl: American Demographics issn: 01634089 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: January 2000 vid: 22 iid: 1 pid: 778 pub: Crain Communications Inc. (MI) artinfo: ui: 511146711 ppf: 24 ppct: 1 formats: fmt: @attributes: type: T tig: atl: If this is a horse race, who's leading? aug: au: Witt, G. Evans su: Election forecasting Presidential candidates United States presidential election, 2000 sug: subj: Election forecasting Presidential candidates United States presidential election, 2000 ab: It is not always completely true to believe that the political candidate with the biggest poll numbers is in the lead in political elections. When the margin between the candidates is less than the sampling error margin, it should not be concluded that one candidate leads another. If, however, one candidate leads another by more than the sampling error margin but less than twice the sampling error margin, that candidate can be said to be slightly in the lead. In addition, if the gap between the candidates is more than twice the sampling error margin, it can be concluded that one candidate is certainly leading the other in the voters' minds—at least for the moment. Furthermore, it is important to remember that no matter how big the lead, no pre-election poll concludes that the race is over until one candidate has actually won. pubtype: Periodical doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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