If this is a horse race, who's leading?

It is not always completely true to believe that the political candidate with the biggest poll numbers is in the lead in political elections. When the margin between the candidates is less than the sampling error margin, it should not be concluded that one candidate leads another. If, however, one...

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Publicado en:American Demographics Vol. 22; no. 1; pp. 24 - 25
Autor principal: Witt, G. Evans
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: Crain Communications Inc. (MI) January 2000
Materias:
Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
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        atl: If this is a horse race, who's leading?
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        Election forecasting
        Presidential candidates
        United States presidential election, 2000
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          Election forecasting
          Presidential candidates
          United States presidential election, 2000
      ab: It is not always completely true to believe that the political candidate with the biggest poll numbers is in the lead in political elections. When the margin between the candidates is less than the sampling error margin, it should not be concluded that one candidate leads another. If, however, one candidate leads another by more than the sampling error margin but less than twice the sampling error margin, that candidate can be said to be slightly in the lead. In addition, if the gap between the candidates is more than twice the sampling error margin, it can be concluded that one candidate is certainly leading the other in the voters' minds—at least for the moment. Furthermore, it is important to remember that no matter how big the lead, no pre-election poll concludes that the race is over until one candidate has actually won.
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