Endowing cognitive mapping with computational properties for strategic analysis.
A number of cognitive, causal mapping and simulation techniques exist for dealing with the growing importance of environmental uncertainty. After briefly commenting on some of the more salient extant approaches, this paper offers a new one for consideration by the scenario planning community. Compre...
| Publicado en: | Futures Vol. 38; no. 8; pp. 993 - 1010 |
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| Autores principales: | , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
| Publicado: |
Elsevier Science
October 2006
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=511321011&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 511321011 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00163287 FUL jtl: Futures issn: 00163287 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: October 2006 vid: 38 iid: 8 pid: 467 pub: Elsevier Science artinfo: ui: 511321011 10.1016/j.futures.2005.12.018 ppf: 993 ppct: 17 formats: tig: atl: Endowing cognitive mapping with computational properties for strategic analysis. aug: au: Acar, William Druckenmiller, Douglas su: Strategic planning Decision making sug: subj: Strategic planning Decision making ab: A number of cognitive, causal mapping and simulation techniques exist for dealing with the growing importance of environmental uncertainty. After briefly commenting on some of the more salient extant approaches, this paper offers a new one for consideration by the scenario planning community. Comprehensive Situation Mapping (CSM) is a powerful analytical tool combined with a process for framing and debating strategic situations. The CSM approach combines the problem framing features of causal mapping with a dialectical inquiry process patterned after Churchman's. Like the better approaches to planning through cognitive mapping, it facilitates the “backward analysis” of the underlying strategic assumptions. Its novelty is that it also allows the “forward analysis” of a situation by computing the potential change scenarios. Initially developed for manual application, the principles of CSM were originally tested in appropriate case studies. The contribution of the present paper is to present its theory and point out that its future potential is even greater: in concluding we indicate that, by using recent distributed artificial intelligence (DAI) technology, a fully computerized and interactive prototype is now being set up for commercial applications. Copyright (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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