Not a Sure Thing: Fitness, Probability, and Causation.

In evolutionary biology changes in population structure are explained by citing trait fitness distribution. I distinguish three interpretations of fitness explanations--the Two- Factor Model, the Single-Factor Model, and the Statistical Interpretation--and argue for the last of these. These interpre...

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Publicado en:Philosophy of Science Vol. 77; no. 2; pp. 147 - 172
Autor principal: Walsh, Denis M.
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: Cambridge University Press Apr2010
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Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
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        au: Walsh, Denis M.
        affil: Department of Philosophy/Institute for the History, Philosophy of Science and Technology, University of Toronto, Victoria College, 91 Charles Street West. Toronto, ON M5S IK7, Canada
      su:
        Biological evolution
        Population
        Causation (Philosophy)
        Biology
        Population biology
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        subj:
          Biological evolution
          Population
          Causation (Philosophy)
          Biology
          Population biology
      ab: In evolutionary biology changes in population structure are explained by citing trait fitness distribution. I distinguish three interpretations of fitness explanations--the Two- Factor Model, the Single-Factor Model, and the Statistical Interpretation--and argue for the last of these. These interpretations differ in their degrees of causal commitment. The first two hold that trait fitness distribution causes population change. Trait fitness explanations, according to these interpretations, are causal explanations. The last maintains that trait fitness distribution correlates with population change but does not cause it. My defense of the Statistical Interpretation relies on a distinctive feature of causation. Causes conform to the Sure Thing Principle. Trait fitness distributions, I argue, do not.
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