Simulating the impact of policy changes in Mexico's PROGRESA/Oportunidades.

Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programmes are being widely used in developing countries to reduce poverty and enhance children's human capital. Researchers have generally relied on ex-ante evaluation models to fine-tune existing CCTs or to design new ones. One of the main pitfalls is 'targeted mode...

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Published in:Journal of Development Effectiveness Vol. 2; no. 2; pp. 263 - 287
Main Authors: Azevedo, Viviane M. R., Robles, Marcos
Format: Article
Published: Taylor & Francis Ltd Jun2010
Subjects:
Online Access:View this record in EBSCOhost
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      dt: Jun2010
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        10.1080/19439341003710380
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        atl: Simulating the impact of policy changes in Mexico's PROGRESA/Oportunidades.
      aug:
        au:
          Azevedo, Viviane M. R.
          Robles, Marcos
        affil:
          Research Department, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, DC, and University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, USA
          Social Sector, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, DC, USA
      su:
        Mexico
        Poverty
        Human capital
        Household surveys
        School attendance
        Equality & economics
        Conditional cash transfer programs
        Structural frame models
        Developing countries
      sug:
        subj:
          Poverty
          Human capital
          Household surveys
          School attendance
          Equality & economics
          Mexico
          Conditional cash transfer programs
          Structural frame models
          Developing countries
      keyword:
        conditional cash transfers
        ex-ante evaluation
        school attendance
        simulations
        conditional cash transfers
        ex-ante evaluation
        school attendance
        simulations
      ab: Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programmes are being widely used in developing countries to reduce poverty and enhance children's human capital. Researchers have generally relied on ex-ante evaluation models to fine-tune existing CCTs or to design new ones. One of the main pitfalls is 'targeted modelling', in which results of counterfactual simulations might be driven by model features rather than the policy objectives. This paper uses the ex-ante evaluation technique of Bourguignon et al., relaxes one of its assumptions, and simulates policy changes at the national level for the Mexican CCT. The model's result are in line with information from the national household survey, and counterfactual simulations indicate that overall school attendance can increase without additional budget.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
      doctype: Article
      src: R
    language: English
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