Polls and Elections: Still Part of the Conversation: Iowa and New Hampshire's Say within the Invisible Primary.
We propose that the extant literature has underestimated the central roles of Iowa and New Hampshire within the invisible primary and, thus, party nominations. Since candidates and the news media focus disproportionately on these states early in the nomination season, impressions of candidate perfor...
| Publicado en: | Presidential Studies Quarterly Vol. 42; no. 3; pp. 597 - 622 |
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| Autores principales: | , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
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Wiley-Blackwell
Sep2012
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=77873665&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 77873665 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 03604918 PRQ jtl: Presidential Studies Quarterly issn: 03604918 maglogo: Y pubinfo: dt: Sep2012 vid: 42 iid: 3 pid: 480 pub: Wiley-Blackwell artinfo: ui: 77873665 10.1111/j.1741-5705.2012.03994.x ppf: 597 ppct: 25 formats: fmt: – @attributes: type: T – @attributes: type: P size: 1001KB tig: atl: Polls and Elections: Still Part of the Conversation: Iowa and New Hampshire's Say within the Invisible Primary. aug: au: CHRISTENSON, DINO P. SMIDT, CORWIN D. affil: Boston University Michigan State University su: Iowa New Hampshire United States Political campaigns Public opinion polls Primaries sug: subj: Political campaigns Public opinion polls Iowa New Hampshire United States Marketing Research and Public Opinion Polling Primaries ab: We propose that the extant literature has underestimated the central roles of Iowa and New Hampshire within the invisible primary and, thus, party nominations. Since candidates and the news media focus disproportionately on these states early in the nomination season, impressions of candidate performance within these states have a disproportionate influence on the invisible primary long before their actual outcomes are observed. Using a Bayesian vector autoregression we find that polls within Iowa and New Hampshire have a more consistent influence on candidates' levels of national news media coverage and national polling than vice versa. We also find that campaign contributions are as responsive to early state polls as they are to national forces or campaign activities. Although these findings do not dispute that candidates need a broad basis of national support to win a party's nomination, they explain why candidates continue to campaign early and intensely in these first-in-the-nation contests. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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