TESTING BAYESIAN UPDATING WITH THE ASSOCIATED PRESS TOP 25.
Most studies of Bayesian updating use experimental data. This article uses a non-experimental data source-the voter ballots of the Associated Press college football poll, a weekly subjective ranking of the top 25 teams-to test Bayes' rule as a descriptive model. I find that voters sometimes underrea...
| Publicado en: | Economic Inquiry Vol. 51; no. 2; p. 1457 |
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| Formato: | Artículo |
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Wiley-Blackwell
Apr2013
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=85761150&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 85761150 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00952583 EIQ jtl: Economic Inquiry issn: 00952583 maglogo: Y pubinfo: dt: Apr2013 vid: 51 iid: 2 pid: 480 pub: Wiley-Blackwell artinfo: ui: 85761150 10.1111/j.1465-7295.2011.00431.x ppf: 1457 ppct: 0 formats: fmt: – @attributes: type: T – @attributes: type: P size: 601KB tig: atl: TESTING BAYESIAN UPDATING WITH THE ASSOCIATED PRESS TOP 25. aug: au: STONE, DANIEL F. affil: Stone: Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331. Phone 541 737 1477, Fax 541 737 5917, E‐mail su: Associated Press Bayesian analysis College football Ranking Football teams Voters sug: subj: Associated Press Sports Teams and Clubs All Other Amusement and Recreation Industries Bayesian analysis College football Ranking Football teams Voters ab: Most studies of Bayesian updating use experimental data. This article uses a non-experimental data source-the voter ballots of the Associated Press college football poll, a weekly subjective ranking of the top 25 teams-to test Bayes' rule as a descriptive model. I find that voters sometimes underreact to new information, sometimes overreact, and at other times their behavior is consistent with estimated Bayesian updating. A unifying explanation for the disparate results is that voters are more responsive to information that is more salient (i.e., noticeable). In particular, voters respond in a 'more Bayesian' way to losses and wins over ranked teams, as compared to wins over unranked teams, and voters seem unaware of subtle variation in the precision of priors. ( JEL D80, D83, D84) pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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