DEMAND FOR DIFFERENTIATED DURABLE PRODUCTS: THE CASE OF THE U.S. COMPUTER PRINTER MARKET.

This paper develops an estimation technique for analyzing the impact of technological change on the dynamics of consumer demand in a differentiated durable products industry. The paper presents a dynamic model of consumer demand for differentiated durable products that explicitly accounts for consum...

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Published in:Economic Inquiry Vol. 51; no. 2; pp. 1277 - 1299
Main Author: MELNIKOV, OLEG
Format: Case Study
Published: Wiley-Blackwell Apr2013
Subjects:
Online Access:View this record in EBSCOhost
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        10.1111/j.1465-7295.2012.00501.x
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        atl: DEMAND FOR DIFFERENTIATED DURABLE PRODUCTS: THE CASE OF THE U.S. COMPUTER PRINTER MARKET.
      aug:
        au: MELNIKOV, OLEG
        affil: Melnikov: Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Informatics and Management, Kharkiv Polytechnic Institute, Kharkiv 61002, Ukraine. Phone 38‐057‐737‐2810, Fax 38‐057‐707‐6601, E‐mail
      su:
        Technological innovations
        Consumption (Economics)
        Consumer behavior
        Computer printer industry
        Product quality
        New product development
      sug:
        subj:
          Technological innovations
          Consumption (Economics)
          Consumer behavior
          Marketing Consulting Services
          Computer and Computer Peripheral Equipment and Software Merchant Wholesalers
          Computer Terminal and Other Computer Peripheral Equipment Manufacturing
          Computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing
          Computer, computer peripheral and pre-packaged software merchant wholesalers
          Computer printer industry
          Product quality
          New product development
      ab: This paper develops an estimation technique for analyzing the impact of technological change on the dynamics of consumer demand in a differentiated durable products industry. The paper presents a dynamic model of consumer demand for differentiated durable products that explicitly accounts for consumers' expectations of future product quality and consumers' outflow from the market that arises endogenously from their purchase decisions. The timing of consumers' purchases is formalized as an optimal stopping problem. A solution to that problem defines the hazard rate of product adoptions, while the nested discrete choice model determines the alternative-specific purchase probabilities. Integrating individual decisions over the population distribution generates rich dynamics of aggregate and product-level sales. The empirical part of the paper applies the model to data on the U.S. computer printer market for 1998-1999. The estimates support the hypothesis of consumers' forward-looking behavior, allowing for better demand forecasts and improved measures of welfare gains from introducing new products. ( JEL L11, C35, D91)
      pubtype: Academic Journal
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    language: English
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