Polls and the Vote in Britain.
Little is known about the evolution of electoral sentiment over British election cycles. How does party support converge on the eventual election outcome? Do preferences evolve in a patterned and understandable way? What role does the official election campaign period play? In this article, we begin...
| Publicado en: | Political Studies Vol. 61; pp. 129 - 155 |
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| Autores principales: | , , , , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
| Publicado: |
Sage Publications Inc.
Apr2013 Supplement
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=86147290&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 86147290 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00323217 PSZ jtl: Political Studies issn: 00323217 maglogo: Y pubinfo: dt: Apr2013 Supplement vid: 61 pid: 344 pub: Sage Publications Inc. artinfo: ui: 86147290 10.1111/1467-9248.12008 ppf: 129 ppct: 26 formats: fmt: @attributes: type: P db: hlh ui: 86147290 tig: atl: Polls and the Vote in Britain. aug: au: Wlezien, Christopher Jennings, Will Fisher, Stephen Ford, Robert Pickup, Mark affil: Temple University University of Southampton University of Oxford University of Manchester Simon Fraser University su: United Kingdom United States Representative government Comparative government Election forecasting British politics & government, 1945- United States politics & government, 1945-1989 United States politics & government, 1989- sug: subj: Representative government United Kingdom United States Comparative government Election forecasting British politics & government, 1945- United States politics & government, 1945-1989 United States politics & government, 1989- keyword: campaigns election forecasting parliamentary systems presidential systems campaigns election forecasting parliamentary systems presidential systems ab: Little is known about the evolution of electoral sentiment over British election cycles. How does party support converge on the eventual election outcome? Do preferences evolve in a patterned and understandable way? What role does the official election campaign period play? In this article, we begin to address these issues. We outline an empirical analysis relating poll results over the course of the election cycle and the final vote for the three main political parties. Then we examine the relationship relying on vote intention polls for the seventeen British general elections between 1950 and 2010. Predictably, polls become increasingly informative about the vote over the election cycle. More surprisingly, early polls contain substantial information about the final outcome, much more than we see in presidential and congressional elections in the US. The final outcome in Britain comes into focus over the long campaign and is to a large extent in place well before the official election campaign begins. The findings are understandable, we think, but raise other questions, which we begin to consider in a concluding section. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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