Naïve Point Estimation.
The capacity of short-term memory is a key constraint when people make online judgments requiring them to rely on samples retrieved from memory (e.g., Dougherty & Hunter, 2003). In this article, the authors compare 2 accounts of how people use knowledge of statistical distributions to make point est...
| Publicado en: | Journal of Experimental Psychology. Learning, Memory & Cognition Vol. 39; no. 3; pp. 782 - 801 |
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| Autores principales: | , , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
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American Psychological Association
May2013
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=87553779&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 87553779 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 02787393 EXL jtl: Journal of Experimental Psychology. Learning, Memory & Cognition issn: 02787393 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: May2013 vid: 39 iid: 3 pid: 34 pub: American Psychological Association artinfo: ui: 87553779 10.1037/a0029670 ppf: 782 ppct: 19 formats: tig: atl: Naïve Point Estimation. aug: au: Lindskog, Marcus Winman, Anders Juslin, Peter affil: Uppsala University su: Psychology Short-term memory Fix-point estimation Comparative studies Probability theory Statistical sampling sug: subj: Psychology Marketing Research and Public Opinion Polling Short-term memory Fix-point estimation Comparative studies Probability theory Statistical sampling keyword: intuitive statistics point estimation sampling model intuitive statistics point estimation sampling model ab: The capacity of short-term memory is a key constraint when people make online judgments requiring them to rely on samples retrieved from memory (e.g., Dougherty & Hunter, 2003). In this article, the authors compare 2 accounts of how people use knowledge of statistical distributions to make point estimates: either by retrieving precomputed large-sample representations or by retrieving small samples of similar observations post hoc at the time of judgment, as constrained by short-term memory capacity (the naive sampling model: Juslin, Winman, & Hansson, 2007). Results from four experiments support the predictions by the naive sampling model, including that participants sometimes guess values that they, when probed, demonstrably know have the lowest probability of occurring. Experiment 1 also demonstrated the operations of an unpredicted recognition-based inference. Computational modeling also incorporating this process demonstrated that the data from all 4 experiments were better predicted by assuming a post hoc sampling process constrained by short-term memory capacity than by assuming abstraction of large-sample representations of the distribution. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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