Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers.
This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected. The relation is particularly strong, both statistica...
| Publicado en: | American Economic Review Vol. 103; no. 3; pp. 117 - 121 |
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| Autores principales: | , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
| Publicado: |
American Economic Association
May2013
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=87662416&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 87662416 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00028282 AER jtl: American Economic Review issn: 00028282 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: May2013 vid: 103 iid: 3 pid: 22 pub: American Economic Association artinfo: ui: 87662416 10.1257/aer.103.3.117 ppf: 117 ppct: 4 formats: tig: atl: Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers. aug: au: Blanchard, Olivier J Leigh, Daniel affil: a1 a2 su: Financial crises Mathematical models of economic development Mathematical models of forecasting Statistical errors European Sovereign Debt Crisis, 2009-2018 Austerity Estimation theory sug: subj: Financial crises Mathematical models of economic development Mathematical models of forecasting Statistical errors European Sovereign Debt Crisis, 2009-2018 Austerity Estimation theory ab: This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected. The relation is particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may in part reflect learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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