Including the Smoking Epidemic in Internationally Coherent Mortality Projections.
We present a new mortality projection methodology that distinguishes smoking- and non-smoking-related mortality and takes into account mortality trends of the opposite sex and in other countries. We evaluate to what extent future projections of life expectancy at birth (e) for the Netherlands up to...
| Publicado en: | Demography (Springer Nature) Vol. 50; no. 4; pp. 1341 - 1363 |
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| Autores principales: | , , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
| Publicado: |
Springer Nature
Aug2013
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=89025155&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 89025155 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00703370 DEM jtl: Demography (Springer Nature) issn: 00703370 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Aug2013 vid: 50 iid: 4 pid: 237 pub: Springer Nature artinfo: ui: 89025155 10.1007/s13524-012-0185-x ppf: 1341 ppct: 22 formats: fmt: @attributes: type: P size: 611KB tig: atl: Including the Smoking Epidemic in Internationally Coherent Mortality Projections. aug: au: Janssen, Fanny Wissen, Leo Kunst, Anton affil: Department of Social Medicine, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam The Netherlands su: Netherlands Mortality Health Smoking Causes of death Life expectancy Trend analysis Death forecasting Mortality -- Mathematical models Sex factors in disease sug: subj: Mortality Health Smoking Causes of death Life expectancy Netherlands Trend analysis Death forecasting Mortality -- Mathematical models Sex factors in disease keyword: Europe Li-Lee methodology Projection Europe Li-Lee methodology Projection ab: We present a new mortality projection methodology that distinguishes smoking- and non-smoking-related mortality and takes into account mortality trends of the opposite sex and in other countries. We evaluate to what extent future projections of life expectancy at birth (e) for the Netherlands up to 2040 are affected by the application of these components. All-cause mortality and non-smoking-related mortality for the years 1970-2006 are projected by the Lee-Carter and Li-Lee methodologies. Smoking-related mortality is projected according to assumptions on future smoking-attributable mortality. Projecting all-cause mortality in the Netherlands, using the Lee-Carter model, leads to high gains in e (4.1 for males; 4.4 for females) and divergence between the sexes. Coherent projections, which include the mortality experience of the other 21 sex- and country-specific populations, result in much higher gains for males (6.4) and females (5.7), and convergence. The separate projection of smoking and non-smoking-related mortality produces a steady increase in e for males (4.8) and a nonlinear trend for females, with lower gains in e in the short run, resulting in temporary sex convergence. The latter effect is also found in coherent projections. Our methodology provides more robust projections, especially thanks to the distinction between smoking- and non-smoking-related mortality. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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