Justification and the growth of error.

It is widely thought that in fallible reasoning potential error necessarily increases with every additional step, whether inferences or premises, in the same way that the probability of a lengthening conjunction shrinks. However, this has the absurd consequence that consulting an expert, proof-check...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Publicado en:Philosophical Studies Vol. 165; no. 2; pp. 527 - 552
Autor principal: Roush, Sherrilyn
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: Springer Nature Sep2013
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Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
Descripción
Sumario:It is widely thought that in fallible reasoning potential error necessarily increases with every additional step, whether inferences or premises, in the same way that the probability of a lengthening conjunction shrinks. However, this has the absurd consequence that consulting an expert, proof-checking, filling gaps in proofs, and gathering more evidence for a given conclusion necessarily make us worse off, since they also add more steps. I will argue that the self-help steps listed here are of a distinctive type, involving composition rather than conjunction. Error grows differently over composition than over conjunction, I argue, and this dissolves the apparent paradox.