Lessons from the electorate: what the 1992 British General Election taught British pollsters about the conduct of opinion polls.
The articles focuses on lessons learned by British pollsters about the conduct of opinion polls during the 1992 British General Election. The British have along history of election polling, a system of national print and broadcast media and an interested and literate audience in the British public....
| Publicado en: | International Social Science Journal Vol. 47; no. 146; pp. 539 - 553 |
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| Formato: | Artículo |
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Wiley-Blackwell
Dec95
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=hlh&AN=9601194471&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: hlh uiTerm: 9601194471 longDbName: Humanities International Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00208701 ISJ jtl: International Social Science Journal issn: 00208701 maglogo: Y pubinfo: dt: Dec95 vid: 47 iid: 146 pid: 480 pub: Wiley-Blackwell artinfo: ui: 9601194471 ppf: 539 ppct: 14 formats: tig: atl: Lessons from the electorate: what the 1992 British General Election taught British pollsters about the conduct of opinion polls. aug: au: Worcester, Robert M. affil: Chairman of MORI Social Research Institute, 32 Old Queen Street, London SW1H 9HP, UK Visiting Professor of Government, London School of Economics and Political Science and in the Graduate Centre of Journalism, City University, London su: Public opinion polls Social surveys Election forecasting Political campaigns United Kingdom sug: subj: United Kingdom Public opinion polls Social surveys Election forecasting Political campaigns keyword: ADMINISTRATION AND POLITICS ab: The articles focuses on lessons learned by British pollsters about the conduct of opinion polls during the 1992 British General Election. The British have along history of election polling, a system of national print and broadcast media and an interested and literate audience in the British public. The record of the British polls is a good one. The most recent British General election was an exception when the polls go wrong. Opinion polls are an expensive form of journalism, yet nearly every national and Scottish newspaper in Britain sponsors its own poll at election times. All newspapers report all the others' polls as do the television news programs. The polls in the 1992 British General Election, however, have a lot to answer for. While the five major pollsters, Gallup, Harris, ICM, MORI and NOP, averaged a 1.3 percent Labor lead, the final result was a 7.6 percent lead for the Conservatives. The polls backed the wrong winner, by a wider margin than can be accounted for by sampling error, and were widely criticized for their inability to perform expectation. One of the most popular reactions to the polls' failure in 1992 was to blame sample size, but it is manifestly apparent that sample size is not the key to quality of findings. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: Y dt: @attributes: year: 1995 holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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