Dynamics in Partisanship during American Presidential Campaigns.
Despite their potential importance, little is known about the nature and prevalence of party identification dynamics within American presidential campaigns. This study reviews existing research to propose three basic contrasting models. It then introduces multivariate state space methods that accoun...
| Publicado en: | Public Opinion Quarterly Vol. 78; no. S1; pp. 303 - 330 |
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| Formato: | Artículo |
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Oxford University Press / USA
2014 Supplement
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=96855107&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 96855107 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 0033362X POQ jtl: Public Opinion Quarterly issn: 0033362X maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: 2014 Supplement vid: 78 iid: S1 pid: 622 pub: Oxford University Press / USA artinfo: ui: 96855107 10.1093/poq/nfu014 ppf: 303 ppct: 27 formats: tig: atl: Dynamics in Partisanship during American Presidential Campaigns. aug: au: Smidt, Corwin D. affil: C orwin D. S midt is an assistant professor of political science at Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA. The author thanks Paul Abramson, Brandon Bartels, and Jan Box-Steffensmeier for their help and comments, and especially thanks Herb Weisberg for providing the 1984 polling data. Data used in this study were collected by the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania and Decision Making Information, Incorporated. Additional codes needed for replication purposes are available from the author upon request. su: United States Partisanship Coalitions Political campaigns Identification (Psychology) Decision making Public opinion United States presidential elections United States elections United States political parties Surveys sug: subj: Partisanship Coalitions Political campaigns Identification (Psychology) Decision making Public opinion United States Political Organizations Executive Offices United States presidential elections United States elections United States political parties Surveys ab: Despite their potential importance, little is known about the nature and prevalence of party identification dynamics within American presidential campaigns. This study reviews existing research to propose three basic contrasting models. It then introduces multivariate state space methods that account for sampling error and survey design effects to evaluate each model’s relative support within daily national survey data of the 1984, 2000, 2004, and 2008 presidential campaigns. The results indicate that the balance of party identifiers had near-certain changes during three of the four campaigns, with campaign events often being associated with these changes. These findings suggest that polls and analyses that fail to allow for sudden shifts in party identifications will mask changes in public opinion. More generally, the findings demonstrate that campaigns shape party coalitions on Election Day, and possibly thereafter. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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