Modelo matemático para el control de la transmisión del Dengue.

Objective A mathematical model is presented in this paper showing the dynamics of dengue transmission. The goal was to study Aedes aegypti population behaviour and that of affected people to scientifically support the decision-making involved in surveillance and control programmes. Methods The propo...

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Published in:Revista de Salud Pública Vol. 14; no. 3; pp. 512 - 524
Main Authors: López, Luis E., Muñoz-Loaiza, Aníbal, Olivar-Tost, Gerard, Betancourt-Bethencourt, José
Format: Article
Published: Universidad Nacional de Colombia may/jun2012
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Online Access:View this record in EBSCOhost
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        au:
          López, Luis E.
          Muñoz-Loaiza, Aníbal
          Olivar-Tost, Gerard
          Betancourt-Bethencourt, José
        affil:
          Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Manizales-Colombia
          Facultad de Ciencias Básicas y Tecnologías, Universidad del Quindío. Armenia, Colombia
          Departamento de investigaciones, Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de Camagüey, Cuba
      su:
        Dengue
        Ecological models
        Biological control of mosquitoes
        Aedes aegypti
        Public health
        Mathematical models
        Infectious disease transmission
      sug:
        subj:
          Dengue
          Ecological models
          Biological control of mosquitoes
          Aedes aegypti
          Public health
          Mathematical models
          Infectious disease transmission
      keyword:
        numerical data (source: MeSH, NLM)
        prevention
        statistics
        transmission
        control
        datos numéricos (fuente: DeCS, BIREME)
        Dengue
        Epidemiología
        estadística
        prevención
        transmisión
      ab:
        Objective A mathematical model is presented in this paper showing the dynamics of dengue transmission. The goal was to study Aedes aegypti population behaviour and that of affected people to scientifically support the decision-making involved in surveillance and control programmes. Methods The proposed mathematical model involved eight differential equations having constant delays; each represented each population's variation either in humans or the mosquito vector. Results Two of the mathematical model's simulation scenarios are presented; they were solved by means of an algorithm implemented in MATLAB software. The data was obtained from the Colombian Statistics Department (DANE), the World Health Organisation (WHO) and from a review of the pertinent literature. The data regarding human and vector populations was analysed (with and without using controls). Conclusions The proposed mathematical model was able to simulate the dynamics of dengue transmission; it simulated the population-related behaviour of Aedes aegypti and the affected people. This model could be a tool for scientifically supporting surveillance and control programmes' decision-making.
        Objetivo En este trabajo se presenta un modelo matemático que muestra la dinámica de transmisión del dengue, con el objetivo de estudiar el comportamiento de las poblaciones del Aedes aegypti y de las personas afectadas. Este modelo puede ser tenido en cuenta por los programas de vigilancia y control a la hora de tomar decisiones. Métodos El modelo matemático propuesto está representado por ocho ecuaciones diferenciales con retardos constantes. Cada ecuación representa la variación de cada subpoblación tanto en los humanos como en el mosquito transmisor. Resultados Se presentan dos escenarios de simulación del modelo matemático resueltos mediante un algoritmo implementado en el software MATLAB, con datos obtenidos del Departamento Nacional de Estadísticas de Colombia (DANE), la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) y la revisión de literatura. En cada escenario se analizan tanto la población humana como la del mosquito, con la utilización o no de controles. Conclusiones El modelo matemático propuesto es capaz de simular la dinámica de transmisión del dengue, muestra el comportamiento de las poblaciones del Aedes aegypti y de las personas afectadas y puede ser una herramienta a tener en cuenta para apoyar de forma científica la toma de decisiones en los programas de vigilancia y control.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
      doctype: Article
      src: R
    language: Spanish
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