Migration and Economic Prospects.
Uncertainty and risk perceptions are important elements in the decision-making process about migration. This study outlines a ‘migration prospect theory’, which aims to explain rather short-term fluctuations of migration flows as a consequence of expectation-based adjustment about future economic pr...
| Publicado en: | Journal of Ethnic & Migration Studies Vol. 41; no. 1; pp. 58 - 83 |
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| Formato: | Artículo |
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Taylor & Francis Ltd
Jan2015
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=hlh&AN=99545903&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: hlh uiTerm: 99545903 longDbName: Humanities International Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 1369183X 56F jtl: Journal of Ethnic & Migration Studies issn: 1369183X maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Jan2015 vid: 41 iid: 1 pid: 377 pub: Taylor & Francis Ltd artinfo: ui: 99545903 10.1080/1369183X.2014.924848 ppf: 58 ppct: 25 formats: fmt: – @attributes: type: T – @attributes: type: P size: 297KB tig: atl: Migration and Economic Prospects. aug: au: Czaika, Mathias su: Risk perception Economic impact of emigration & immigration Labor market Loss aversion Expected utility sug: subj: Risk perception Economic impact of emigration & immigration Labor market Loss aversion Expected utility keyword: Economic Prospects Intra-European Migration Migration Prospect Theory ab: Uncertainty and risk perceptions are important elements in the decision-making process about migration. This study outlines a ‘migration prospect theory’, which aims to explain rather short-term fluctuations of migration flows as a consequence of expectation-based adjustment about future economic prospects. I argue that individuals with migration intentions continuously assess general economic prospects, including the labour market situation, at home and abroad in order to form reference points and updates for their migration-related expectations. Consequently, deviations from reference points generate expectation-based utility gains or losses for potential migrants, which affect the value of the migration option. This can lead to a cancellation or procrastination of the individual migration project. Based on an analysis of intra-European migration inflows to Germany between 2001 and 2010, supportive empirical evidence about some key implications of this migration prospect theory is found: first, migration flows respond more strongly to negative than to equal-sized positive economic prospects, indicating loss aversion of potential migrants; second, expectation-based prospects about the future economic situations in the home and potential destination country can both counterbalance or reinforce structural economic incentives based on real economic aggregates and third, migration flows show a diminishing sensitivity for larger fluctuations in expectation-based adjustments of economic prospects. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: Y custom: Copyright of Journal of Ethnic & Migration Studies is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. item: Journal of Ethnic & Migration Studies holder: Taylor & Francis Ltd dt: @attributes: year: 2015 holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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