Bayesian Population Forecasting: Extending the Lee-Carter Method.
In this article, we develop a fully integrated and dynamic Bayesian approach to forecast populations by age and sex. The approach embeds the Lee-Carter type models for forecasting the age patterns, with associated measures of uncertainty, of fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration within a...
| Publicado en: | Demography (Springer Nature) Vol. 52; no. 3; pp. 1035 - 1060 |
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| Autores principales: | , , , , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
| Publicado: |
Springer Nature
Jun2015
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=103187609&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 103187609 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00703370 DEM jtl: Demography (Springer Nature) issn: 00703370 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Jun2015 vid: 52 iid: 3 pid: 237 pub: Springer Nature artinfo: ui: 103187609 10.1007/s13524-015-0389-y ppf: 1035 ppct: 25 formats: fmt: @attributes: type: P size: 2MB tig: atl: Bayesian Population Forecasting: Extending the Lee-Carter Method. aug: au: Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz Smith, Peter Bijak, Jakub Raymer, James Forster, Jonathan affil: Economic and Social Research Council Centre for Population Change, University of Southampton, Highfield SO17 1BJ Southampton UK Australian Demographic & Social Research Institute, The Australian National University, Acton ACT 2601 Australia su: Population forecasting Social prediction Population statistics Bayesian analysis Bayes' estimation sug: subj: Population forecasting Social prediction Population statistics Bayesian analysis Bayes' estimation keyword: Bayesian Lee-Carter model uncertainty United Kingdom Bayesian Lee-Carter model uncertainty United Kingdom ab: In this article, we develop a fully integrated and dynamic Bayesian approach to forecast populations by age and sex. The approach embeds the Lee-Carter type models for forecasting the age patterns, with associated measures of uncertainty, of fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration within a cohort projection model. The methodology may be adapted to handle different data types and sources of information. To illustrate, we analyze time series data for the United Kingdom and forecast the components of population change to the year 2024. We also compare the results obtained from different forecast models for age-specific fertility, mortality, and migration. In doing so, we demonstrate the flexibility and advantages of adopting the Bayesian approach for population forecasting and highlight areas where this work could be extended. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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