Bayesian Population Forecasting: Extending the Lee-Carter Method.

In this article, we develop a fully integrated and dynamic Bayesian approach to forecast populations by age and sex. The approach embeds the Lee-Carter type models for forecasting the age patterns, with associated measures of uncertainty, of fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration within a...

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Detalles Bibliográficos

Publicado en:	Demography (Springer Nature) Vol. 52; no. 3; pp. 1035 - 1060
Autores principales:	Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz, Smith, Peter, Bijak, Jakub, Raymer, James, Forster, Jonathan
Formato:	Artículo
Publicado:	Springer Nature Jun2015
Materias:	Population forecasting Social prediction Population statistics Bayesian analysis Bayes' estimation
Acceso en línea:	Ver este registro en EBSCOhost