Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration.
We propose a method for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of migration for all countries, broken down by age and sex. Joint trajectories for all countries are constrained to satisfy the requirement of zero global net migration. We evaluate our model using out-of-sample validation and compare...
| Publicado en: | Demography (Springer Nature) Vol. 52; no. 5; pp. 1627 - 1651 |
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| Autores principales: | , , , |
| Formato: | journal article |
| Publicado: |
Springer Nature
Oct2015
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=110340255&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 110340255 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00703370 DEM jtl: Demography (Springer Nature) issn: 00703370 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Oct2015 vid: 52 iid: 5 pid: 237 pub: Springer Nature artinfo: ui: 110340255 10.1007/s13524-015-0415-0 ppf: 1627 ppct: 24 formats: fmt: @attributes: type: P size: 539KB tig: atl: Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration. aug: au: Azose, Jonathan Raftery, Adrian Azose, Jonathan J Raftery, Adrian E affil: Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Box 354322 98195-4322 Seattle USA Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Box 354322, 98195-4322, Seattle, WA, USA su: United Nations Emigration & immigration Demography Bayesian analysis Probability theory Autoregressive models Markov chain Monte Carlo Research funding System analysis Time sug: subj: Emigration & immigration Demography United Nations International and other extra-territorial public administration International Affairs Bayesian analysis Probability theory Autoregressive models Markov chain Monte Carlo Research funding System analysis Time keyword: Autoregressive model Bayesian hierarchical model World population prospects Autoregressive model Bayesian hierarchical model World population prospects ab: We propose a method for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of migration for all countries, broken down by age and sex. Joint trajectories for all countries are constrained to satisfy the requirement of zero global net migration. We evaluate our model using out-of-sample validation and compare point projections to the projected migration rates from a persistence model similar to the method used in the United Nations' World Population Prospects, and also to a state-of-the-art gravity model. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: journal article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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