Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration.

We propose a method for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of migration for all countries, broken down by age and sex. Joint trajectories for all countries are constrained to satisfy the requirement of zero global net migration. We evaluate our model using out-of-sample validation and compare...

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Publicado en:	Demography (Springer Nature) Vol. 52; no. 5; pp. 1627 - 1651
Autores principales:	Azose, Jonathan, Raftery, Adrian, Azose, Jonathan J, Raftery, Adrian E
Formato:	journal article
Publicado:	Springer Nature Oct2015
Materias:	United Nations Emigration & immigration Demography Bayesian analysis Probability theory Autoregressive models Markov chain Monte Carlo Research funding System analysis Time
Acceso en línea:	Ver este registro en EBSCOhost