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Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration.

We propose a method for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of migration for all countries, broken down by age and sex. Joint trajectories for all countries are constrained to satisfy the requirement of zero global net migration. We evaluate our model using out-of-sample validation and compare...

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Published in:Demography (Springer Nature) Vol. 52; no. 5; pp. 1627 - 1651
Main Authors: Azose, Jonathan, Raftery, Adrian, Azose, Jonathan J, Raftery, Adrian E
Format: journal article
Published: Springer Nature Oct2015
Subjects:
United Nations
Emigration & immigration
Demography
Bayesian analysis
Probability theory
Autoregressive models
Markov chain Monte Carlo
Research funding
System analysis
Time
Online Access:View this record in EBSCOhost