Missing the Forest for the Fish: How Much Does the ‘Hawkmoth Effect’ Threaten the Viability of Climate Projections?
Roman Frigg and others have developed a general epistemological argument designed to cast doubt on the capacity of a broad range of mathematical models (including many climate models) to generate “decision relevant predictions.” In this article, we lay out the structure of their argument—an argument...
| Publicado en: | Philosophy of Science Vol. 83; no. 5; pp. 1122 - 1133 |
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| Autores principales: | , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
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Cambridge University Press
Dec2016
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=hlh&AN=119504806&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: hlh uiTerm: 119504806 longDbName: Humanities International Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00318248 PSC jtl: Philosophy of Science issn: 00318248 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Dec2016 vid: 83 iid: 5 pid: 15979 pub: Cambridge University Press artinfo: ui: 119504806 10.1086/687943 ppf: 1122 ppct: 11 formats: fmt: – @attributes: type: T – @attributes: type: P size: 230KB tig: atl: Missing the Forest for the Fish: How Much Does the ‘Hawkmoth Effect’ Threaten the Viability of Climate Projections? aug: au: Goodwin, William M. Winsberg, Eric affil: To contact the authors, please write to: Eric Winsberg, Philosophy Department, University of South Florida, 4202 E. Fowler Avenue, Tampa, FL 33620 su: Frigg, Roman Theory of knowledge Climatology Nonlinear systems Logistic maps (Mathematics) Mathematical models sug: subj: Frigg, Roman Theory of knowledge Climatology Nonlinear systems Logistic maps (Mathematics) Mathematical models ab: Roman Frigg and others have developed a general epistemological argument designed to cast doubt on the capacity of a broad range of mathematical models (including many climate models) to generate “decision relevant predictions.” In this article, we lay out the structure of their argument—an argument by analogy—with an eye to identifying points at which certain epistemically significant distinctions might limit the force of the analogy. Finally, some of these epistemically significant distinctions are introduced and defended as relevant to a great many of the predictive mathematical modeling projects employed in contemporary climate science. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: Y custom: Copyright of Philosophy of Science is the property of Cambridge University Press and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. item: Philosophy of Science holder: Cambridge University Press dt: @attributes: year: 2016 holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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