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Polling and Prediction in the 2016 Presidential Election.

In the wake of experts' failure to predict the outcome of the 2016 presidential election, a rigorous analysis of what went right and wrong is needed to improve future polling. Despite claims that "data is dead," low-tech factors such as sampling errors and inaccurate likely-voter models were probabl...

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Published in:Computer (00189162) Vol. 50; no. 5; pp. 110 - 116
Main Authors: Valentino, Nicholas A., King, John Leslie, Hill, Walter W.
Format: Article
Published: IEEE May2017
Subjects:
United States presidential election, 2016
Exit polling (Elections)
Sampling (Process)
Experimental design
Mathematical models
Online Access:View this record in EBSCOhost
Summary:In the wake of experts' failure to predict the outcome of the 2016 presidential election, a rigorous analysis of what went right and wrong is needed to improve future polling. Despite claims that "data is dead," low-tech factors such as sampling errors and inaccurate likely-voter models were probably most responsible.