Polling and Prediction in the 2016 Presidential Election.

In the wake of experts' failure to predict the outcome of the 2016 presidential election, a rigorous analysis of what went right and wrong is needed to improve future polling. Despite claims that "data is dead," low-tech factors such as sampling errors and inaccurate likely-voter models were probabl...

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Publicado en:Computer (00189162) Vol. 50; no. 5; pp. 110 - 116
Autores principales: Valentino, Nicholas A., King, John Leslie, Hill, Walter W.
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: IEEE May2017
Materias:
Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
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          Valentino, Nicholas A.
          King, John Leslie
          Hill, Walter W.
        affil:
          University of Michigan
          St. Mary's College of Maryland
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        United States presidential election, 2016
        Exit polling (Elections)
        Sampling (Process)
        Experimental design
        Mathematical models
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        subj:
          United States presidential election, 2016
          Exit polling (Elections)
          Sampling (Process)
          Experimental design
          Mathematical models
      keyword:
        Aftershock
        data analysis
        elections
        prediction
      ab: In the wake of experts' failure to predict the outcome of the 2016 presidential election, a rigorous analysis of what went right and wrong is needed to improve future polling. Despite claims that "data is dead," low-tech factors such as sampling errors and inaccurate likely-voter models were probably most responsible.
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    language: English
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