MISSING NONVOTERS AND MISWEIGHTED SAMPLES: EXPLAINING THE 2015 GREAT BRITISH POLLING MISS.
Preelection polls for the 2015 UK General Election missed the final result by a considerable margin: underestimating the Conservative Party and overestimating Labour. Analyzing evidence for five theories of why the polls missed using British Election Study (BES) data, we find limited evidence for sy...
| Publicado en: | Public Opinion Quarterly Vol. 81; no. 3; pp. 661 - 688 |
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| Autores principales: | , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
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Oxford University Press / USA
Fall2017
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=125041340&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 125041340 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 0033362X POQ jtl: Public Opinion Quarterly issn: 0033362X maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Fall2017 vid: 81 iid: 3 pid: 622 pub: Oxford University Press / USA artinfo: ui: 125041340 10.1093/poq/nfx015 ppf: 661 ppct: 27 formats: tig: atl: MISSING NONVOTERS AND MISWEIGHTED SAMPLES: EXPLAINING THE 2015 GREAT BRITISH POLLING MISS. aug: au: MELLON, JONATHAN PROSSER, CHRISTOPHER affil: Research fellow with the British Election Study at Nuffield College of the University of Oxford, Oxford, UK Research associate with the British Election Study at the School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK Nonstipendiary research fellow at Nuffield College, Oxford, UK su: United Kingdom Conservative Party (Great Britain) Labour Party (Great Britain) Elections Election forecasting Statistical errors Statistical sampling British politics & government, 2007- Voter psychology Internet surveys sug: subj: Elections United Kingdom Conservative Party (Great Britain) Labour Party (Great Britain) Marketing Research and Public Opinion Polling Election forecasting Statistical errors Statistical sampling British politics & government, 2007- Voter psychology Internet surveys ab: Preelection polls for the 2015 UK General Election missed the final result by a considerable margin: underestimating the Conservative Party and overestimating Labour. Analyzing evidence for five theories of why the polls missed using British Election Study (BES) data, we find limited evidence for systematic vote intention misreporting, late swing, systematically different preferences among "don't knows," or differential turnout of parties' supporters. By comparing the BES face-to-face probability sample and BES Internet panel, we show that the online survey's polling error is primarily caused by undersampling nonvoters, then weighting respondents to represent the general population. Consequently, demographic groups with a low probability of voting are overweighted within the voter subsample. Finally, we show that this mechanism is likely partially responsible for the polls overestimating the Liberal Democrats in 2010, illustrating that this is a longstanding problem. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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