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The Value of Precision in Probability Assessment: Evidence from a Large-Scale Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament.

Scholars, practitioners, and pundits often leave their assessments of uncertainty vague when debating foreign policy, arguing that clearer probability estimates would provide arbitrary detail instead of useful insight. We provide the first systematic test of this claim using a data set containing 88...

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Publicado en:International Studies Quarterly Vol. 62; no. 2; pp. 410 - 423
Autores principales: Friedman, Jeffrey A, Baker, Joshua D, Mellers, Barbara A, Tetlock, Philip E, Zeckhauser, Richard
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: Oxford University Press / USA Jun2018
Materias:
Geopolitics
International relations
Probability theory
Statistical accuracy
Political forecasting
Uncertainty (Information theory)
Natural language processing
Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost