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The Value of Precision in Probability Assessment: Evidence from a Large-Scale Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament.

Scholars, practitioners, and pundits often leave their assessments of uncertainty vague when debating foreign policy, arguing that clearer probability estimates would provide arbitrary detail instead of useful insight. We provide the first systematic test of this claim using a data set containing 88...

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Published in:International Studies Quarterly Vol. 62; no. 2; pp. 410 - 423
Main Authors: Friedman, Jeffrey A, Baker, Joshua D, Mellers, Barbara A, Tetlock, Philip E, Zeckhauser, Richard
Format: Article
Published: Oxford University Press / USA Jun2018
Subjects:
Geopolitics
International relations
Probability theory
Statistical accuracy
Political forecasting
Uncertainty (Information theory)
Natural language processing
Online Access:View this record in EBSCOhost