| Sumario: | Objectives: Assessment of thyroid parenchymal echogenicity on ultrasonography is a predictor of future thyroid dysfunction. Our objective was to determine the prognostic value of acoustic structure quantification (ASQ) to predict the outcome of patients with Hashimoto's thyroiditis (HT).Materials and Methods: We prospectively evaluated 90 patients with HT using ASQ from May to December 2013. Surveillance for the development of overt hypothyroidism was conducted over a median period of 40 months (3-55). ASQ were dichotomized based on optimal cutoff values obtained from ROC curve analysis. The probability of developing overt hypothyroidism was compared between the dichotomized subgroups using Kaplan-Meier analysis and log-rank tests. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to determine significant prognostic factors.Results: The cumulative rate of overt hypothyroidism was 67.7%. The median interval to overt hypothyroidism was 27.9 months (95% confidence interval, 12.0-38.0 months). There was no significant difference in the risk of overt hypothyroidism using qualitative echogenicity between groups (p = 0.669) according to Kaplan-Meier analysis. However, the ASQ average (p < 0.001), standard deviation (p = 0.015), and focal disturbance ratio (p < 0.001) were significantly associated with an increased risk of overt hypothyroidism. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that a higher ASQ average (hazard ratio, 1.03; p = 0.03) and higher thyroid-stimulating hormone level (hazard ratio, 1.02; p = 0.02) were independent predictors of overt hypothyroidism.Conclusions: ASQ has potential as a prognostic biomarker for predicting the risk of overt hypothyroidism in patients with HT.Key Points: • ASQ provides quantitative prognostic information of thyroid parenchymal echogenicity. • ASQ parameters improved the stratification of patients who are prone to develop overt hypothyroidism in HT. • ASQ can serve as prognostic biomarker in HT.
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