The myth and fallacy of simple extrapolation in medicine.
Simple extrapolation is the orthodox approach to extrapolating from clinical trials in evidence-based medicine: extrapolate the relative effect size (e.g. the relative risk) from the trial unless there is a compelling reason not to do so. I argue that this method relies on a myth and a fallacy. The...
| Publicado en: | Synthese Vol. 198; no. 4; pp. 2919 - 2940 |
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| Formato: | Artículo |
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Springer Nature
Apr2021
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=hlh&AN=149905557&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: hlh uiTerm: 149905557 longDbName: Humanities International Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00397857 4LI jtl: Synthese issn: 00397857 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Apr2021 vid: 198 iid: 4 pid: 237 pub: Springer Nature artinfo: ui: 149905557 10.1007/s11229-019-02255-0 ppf: 2919 ppct: 21 formats: fmt: @attributes: type: P size: 409KB tig: atl: The myth and fallacy of simple extrapolation in medicine. aug: au: Fuller, Jonathan affil: Department of History and Philosophy of Science, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, USA African Centre for Epistemology and Philosophy of Science, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg, South Africa su: Golden ratio Extrapolation Evidence-based medicine Myth Philosophy of medicine Clinical trials sug: subj: Golden ratio Extrapolation Evidence-based medicine Myth Philosophy of medicine Clinical trials keyword: External validity Relative risk ab: Simple extrapolation is the orthodox approach to extrapolating from clinical trials in evidence-based medicine: extrapolate the relative effect size (e.g. the relative risk) from the trial unless there is a compelling reason not to do so. I argue that this method relies on a myth and a fallacy. The myth of simple extrapolation is the idea that the relative risk is a 'golden ratio' that is usually transportable due to some special mathematical or theoretical property. The fallacy of simple extrapolation is an unjustified argument from ignorance: we conclude that the relative effect size is transportable in the absence of evidence to the contrary. In short, simple extrapolation is a deeply problematic solution to the problem of extrapolation. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: Y custom: Synthese is a copyright of Springer, 2021. All Rights Reserved. item: Synthese holder: Springer Nature dt: @attributes: year: 2021 holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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