The myth and fallacy of simple extrapolation in medicine.
Simple extrapolation is the orthodox approach to extrapolating from clinical trials in evidence-based medicine: extrapolate the relative effect size (e.g. the relative risk) from the trial unless there is a compelling reason not to do so. I argue that this method relies on a myth and a fallacy. The...
| Publicado en: | Synthese Vol. 198; no. 4; pp. 2919 - 2940 |
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| Autor principal: | |
| Formato: | Artículo |
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Springer Nature
Apr2021
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| Sumario: | Simple extrapolation is the orthodox approach to extrapolating from clinical trials in evidence-based medicine: extrapolate the relative effect size (e.g. the relative risk) from the trial unless there is a compelling reason not to do so. I argue that this method relies on a myth and a fallacy. The myth of simple extrapolation is the idea that the relative risk is a 'golden ratio' that is usually transportable due to some special mathematical or theoretical property. The fallacy of simple extrapolation is an unjustified argument from ignorance: we conclude that the relative effect size is transportable in the absence of evidence to the contrary. In short, simple extrapolation is a deeply problematic solution to the problem of extrapolation. |
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