A paradox for tiny probabilities and enormous values.
We begin by showing that every theory of the value of uncertain prospects must have one of three unpalatable properties. Reckless theories recommend giving up a sure thing, no matter how good, for an arbitrarily tiny chance of enormous gain; timid theories permit passing up an arbitrarily large pote...
| Published in: | Nous (0029-4624) Vol. 58; no. 2; pp. 431 - 456 |
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| Main Authors: | , |
| Format: | Article |
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Wiley-Blackwell
Jun2024
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| Online Access: | View this record in EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=hlh&AN=177061497&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: hlh uiTerm: 177061497 longDbName: Humanities International Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00294624 D97 jtl: Nous (0029-4624) issn: 00294624 maglogo: Y pubinfo: dt: Jun2024 vid: 58 iid: 2 pid: 480 pub: Wiley-Blackwell artinfo: ui: 177061497 10.1111/nous.12462 ppf: 431 ppct: 25 formats: fmt: – @attributes: type: T – @attributes: type: P size: 280KB tig: atl: A paradox for tiny probabilities and enormous values. aug: au: Beckstead, Nick Thomas, Teruji affil: Independent Researcher Global Priorities Institute, Faculty of Philosophy, University of Oxford su: Decision theory Probability theory Cost sug: subj: Decision theory Probability theory Cost ab: We begin by showing that every theory of the value of uncertain prospects must have one of three unpalatable properties. Reckless theories recommend giving up a sure thing, no matter how good, for an arbitrarily tiny chance of enormous gain; timid theories permit passing up an arbitrarily large potential gain to prevent a tiny increase in risk; non‐transitive theories deny the principle that, if A$A$ is better than B$B$ and B$B$ is better than C$C$, then A$A$ must be better than C$C$. Having set up this trilemma, we study its horns. Non‐transitivity has been much discussed; we focus on drawing out the costs and benefits of recklessness and timidity when it comes to axiology, decision theory, and normative uncertainty. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: Y custom: Copyright of Nous (0029-4624) is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. item: Nous (0029-4624) holder: Wiley-Blackwell dt: @attributes: year: 2024 holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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