Beyond finite additivity.

There is a Dutch Book argument for the axiom of countable additivity for subjective probability functions, but de Finetti famously rejected the axiom, arguing that it wrongly renders a uniform distribution impermissible over a countably infinite lottery. Dubins however showed that rejecting countabl...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Publicado en:Philosophy of Science Vol. 91; no. 3; pp. 533 - 543
Autor principal: Howson, Colin
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: Cambridge University Press Jul2024
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Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
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Sumario:There is a Dutch Book argument for the axiom of countable additivity for subjective probability functions, but de Finetti famously rejected the axiom, arguing that it wrongly renders a uniform distribution impermissible over a countably infinite lottery. Dubins however showed that rejecting countable additivity has a strongly paradoxical consequence that a much weaker rule than countable additivity blocks. I argue that this rule, which also prohibits the de Finetti lottery, has powerful independent support in a desirable closure principle. I leave it as an open question whether countable additivity should be adopted.