| Sumario: | The 2020 Puerto Rico General Election was characterized by the decline of the electoral hegemony of the dominant parties, the surge of third parties, and low turnout. In this investigation we aim to explain the factors influencing the gubernatorial vote at the aggregate municipal level. Our main hypothesis is that there was an enthusiasm gap between supporters of the two main parties--who were less enthusiastic about their candidates-- and supporters of the third parties--who were more enthusiastic about theirs. Mobilization by the dominant parties and self-mobilization by voters to participate in the status plebiscite were key in overcoming this enthusiasm gap and thus were the main factors influencing the outcome of the gubernatorial vote. Using US Census and the Puerto Rico State Electoral Commission aggregate level data, we find strong support for the enthusiasm gap and mobilization hypotheses. Demographic and political variables also influenced the vote.
|