Turnout Decline, Mobilization, and Third-Party Surge: The 2020 Puerto Rico General Election.

The 2020 Puerto Rico General Election was characterized by the decline of the electoral hegemony of the dominant parties, the surge of third parties, and low turnout. In this investigation we aim to explain the factors influencing the gubernatorial vote at the aggregate municipal level. Our main hyp...

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Publicado en:Centro Journal Vol. 36; no. 3; pp. 37 - 73
Autores principales: CUEVAS-MOLINA, IVELISSE, CÁMARA-FUERTES, LUIS RAÚL, NEGRÓN-TORRES, GABRIEL A., MARTÍNEZ-AMADOR, MANUEL B.
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: Centro de Estudios Puertorriquenos (Center for Puerto Rican Studies) Fall2024
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Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
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        atl: Turnout Decline, Mobilization, and Third-Party Surge: The 2020 Puerto Rico General Election.
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          CUEVAS-MOLINA, IVELISSE
          CÁMARA-FUERTES, LUIS RAÚL
          NEGRÓN-TORRES, GABRIEL A.
          MARTÍNEZ-AMADOR, MANUEL B.
        affil:
          Assistant professor of political science at Fordham University, Rose Hill College, in the Bronx
          New York University Robert F. Wagner School of Public Service completing the Master of Urban Planning
          University of Puerto Rico, Río Piedras
      su:
        Elections
        Third parties (Politics)
        Plebiscite
        Enthusiasm
        Census
        Voter turnout
        Puerto Rico
      sug:
        subj:
          Puerto Rico
          Elections
          Third parties (Politics)
          Plebiscite
          Enthusiasm
          Census
          Voter turnout
      keyword:
        elections
        mobilization
        third parties
        voter turnout
      ab: The 2020 Puerto Rico General Election was characterized by the decline of the electoral hegemony of the dominant parties, the surge of third parties, and low turnout. In this investigation we aim to explain the factors influencing the gubernatorial vote at the aggregate municipal level. Our main hypothesis is that there was an enthusiasm gap between supporters of the two main parties--who were less enthusiastic about their candidates-- and supporters of the third parties--who were more enthusiastic about theirs. Mobilization by the dominant parties and self-mobilization by voters to participate in the status plebiscite were key in overcoming this enthusiasm gap and thus were the main factors influencing the outcome of the gubernatorial vote. Using US Census and the Puerto Rico State Electoral Commission aggregate level data, we find strong support for the enthusiasm gap and mobilization hypotheses. Demographic and political variables also influenced the vote.
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