Stake inflation in foreign policy: is Taiwan the ultimate domino?
Just as threat inflation distorted discourse in the past, stake inflation is increasingly distorting strategic analysis today. This article develops the concept of stake inflation and shows how it is operating in the context of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Whereas threat inflation focuses...
| Publicado en: | International Affairs Vol. 101; no. 4; pp. 1361 - 1380 |
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| Formato: | Artículo |
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Oxford University Press / USA
Jul2025
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=187148329&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 187148329 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00205850 INA jtl: International Affairs issn: 00205850 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Jul2025 vid: 101 iid: 4 pid: 622 pub: Oxford University Press / USA artinfo: ui: 187148329 10.1093/ia/iiaf063 ppf: 1361 ppct: 19 formats: fmt: – @attributes: type: T db: hlh ui: 187148329 – @attributes: type: P db: hlh ui: 187148329 tig: atl: Stake inflation in foreign policy: is Taiwan the ultimate domino? aug: au: McKinney, Jared M su: Taiwan International relations International security War National interest Nation-state sug: subj: International relations International security War Taiwan Foreign affairs International Affairs National interest Nation-state keyword: foreign policy international security regional security Sino-American relations war foreign policy international security regional security Sino-American relations war ab: Just as threat inflation distorted discourse in the past, stake inflation is increasingly distorting strategic analysis today. This article develops the concept of stake inflation and shows how it is operating in the context of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Whereas threat inflation focuses on the intentions and capabilities of an adversary, stake inflation focuses on the salience of an issue and a wider articulation of a state's national interests. Stake inflation means exaggerating something about oneself, not just exaggerating things about outside adversaries. It creates the imagination of an 'ultimate domino'—the one thing that, if ever pushed over, sets in motion a transformative chain of events. This tendency increasingly characterizes strategic assessments of Taiwan's importance by both American and Chinese analysts. Surprisingly, these analysts tend to agree that the ideological, geographical, geopolitical and geoeconomic stakes are such that Taiwan is the pivot point of the twenty-first century—the location where everything that matters for generating and projecting power is gathered. However, this article shows that such assessments are inflated on both sides. A Chinese conquest of Taiwan would likely not materially improve China's power position: to the contrary, it could ruin the China dream. Such a conquest would surely undermine US interests, but it would not be existential. The solution to stake inflation is not trivialization, but stake recognition. The US and China have a major mutual interest in avoiding war over Taiwan. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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