| Sumario: | Just as threat inflation distorted discourse in the past, stake inflation is increasingly distorting strategic analysis today. This article develops the concept of stake inflation and shows how it is operating in the context of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Whereas threat inflation focuses on the intentions and capabilities of an adversary, stake inflation focuses on the salience of an issue and a wider articulation of a state's national interests. Stake inflation means exaggerating something about oneself, not just exaggerating things about outside adversaries. It creates the imagination of an 'ultimate domino'—the one thing that, if ever pushed over, sets in motion a transformative chain of events. This tendency increasingly characterizes strategic assessments of Taiwan's importance by both American and Chinese analysts. Surprisingly, these analysts tend to agree that the ideological, geographical, geopolitical and geoeconomic stakes are such that Taiwan is the pivot point of the twenty-first century—the location where everything that matters for generating and projecting power is gathered. However, this article shows that such assessments are inflated on both sides. A Chinese conquest of Taiwan would likely not materially improve China's power position: to the contrary, it could ruin the China dream. Such a conquest would surely undermine US interests, but it would not be existential. The solution to stake inflation is not trivialization, but stake recognition. The US and China have a major mutual interest in avoiding war over Taiwan.
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