HOW TO PREDICT FUTURE DURATION FROM PRESENT AGE.

The physicist J. Richard Gott has given an argument which, if good, allows one to make accurate predictions for the future longevity of a process, based solely on its present age. We show that there are problems with some of the details of Gott's argument, but we defend the core thesis: in many circ...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Publicado en:Philosophical Quarterly Vol. 56; no. 222; pp. 16 - 39
Autores principales: Monton, Bradley, Kierland, Brian
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: Oxford University Press / USA Jan2006
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Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
Descripción
Sumario:The physicist J. Richard Gott has given an argument which, if good, allows one to make accurate predictions for the future longevity of a process, based solely on its present age. We show that there are problems with some of the details of Gott's argument, but we defend the core thesis: in many circumstances, the greater the present age of a process, the more likely a longer future duration.