Simulation Expectation.

I present a new argument that we are much more likely to be living in a computer simulation than in the ground-level of reality. (Similar arguments can be marshalled for the view that we are more likely to be Boltzmann brains than ordinary people, but I focus on the case of simulations.) I explain h...

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Published in:Erkenntnis Vol. 91; no. 1; pp. 427 - 445
Main Author: Thomas, Teruji
Format: Article
Published: Springer Nature Jan2026
Subjects:
Online Access:View this record in EBSCOhost
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        atl: Simulation Expectation.
      aug:
        au: Thomas, Teruji
        affil: https://ror.org/052gg0110 Global Priorities Institute, Faculty of Philosophy, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
      su:
        Simulation methods & models
        Worldview
        Refutation (Logic)
        Artificial intelligence
        Simulation software
        Epistemics
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        subj:
          Simulation methods & models
          Worldview
          Refutation (Logic)
          Artificial intelligence
          Simulation software
          Epistemics
      ab: I present a new argument that we are much more likely to be living in a computer simulation than in the ground-level of reality. (Similar arguments can be marshalled for the view that we are more likely to be Boltzmann brains than ordinary people, but I focus on the case of simulations.) I explain how this argument overcomes some objections to Bostrom's classic argument for the same conclusion. I also consider to what extent the argument depends upon an internalist conception of evidence, and I refute the common line of thought that finding many simulations being run—or running them ourselves—must increase the odds that we are in a simulation.
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    language: English
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