| Summary: | University dropout is a global, complex, and multifactorial phenomenon that encompasses academic, social, economic, and institutional dimensions. This study analyzes the factors influencing the intention to drop out among students enrolled in the Bachelor's programs in Mathematics and Mathematics Teaching at the University of Panama, within the framework of its institutional conditions. A robust statistical approach is employed through Cumulative Link Mixed Models, which are suitable for ordinal variables and capable of incorporating random effects. The results reveal that economic dependence and native origin are significantly associated with higher levels of dropout intention, whereas variables such as gender, availability of financial resources, and family environment show no significant effects. The model thresholds indicate a cumulative progression in dropout probability. The random component explains a limited proportion of the variability (ICC = 2.4%), suggesting that group differences are minor compared to individual effects. Furthermore, differentiated patterns are identified in the perception of factors according to socioeconomic conditions, highlighting self-sufficient native students as a vulnerable group. These findings provide empirical evidence to inform targeted institutional strategies for improving student retention.
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